How does the Union State of Belarus and Russia function beyond its formal and often decorative institutions?
Why should it be seen not only as an unfinished integration project, but as an operational infrastructure of authoritarian consolidation?
And what risks does this model create for Belarus, Ukraine, the European Union and the wider region?
This policy brief summarises the findings of an expert discussion held under the Chatham House Rule in March 2026 within the project “Belarus–Russia Relations in the Context of War, Authoritarianism, and Cultural Hegemony”. The discussion focused on the institutional nature of the Union State, its transformation under the conditions of war and sanctions, and its role in deepening Belarus’s asymmetric dependence on Russia.
The policy brief examines:
the Union State as an institutional environment rather than a failed supranational project;
the dual nature of the Union State: decorative and declarative on the surface, but operationally functional beneath it;
the use of Belarus as an “offshore” jurisdiction for Russia in sanctions-evasion schemes;
the deepening coordination between Belarus and Russia in security, defence, logistics, regulation, standards, information policy, education and culture;
the risks posed by the Union State to Belarusian sovereignty, Ukraine’s security and EU Member States bordering Belarus and Russia;
the need to shift European policy from symbolic assessments of the Union State to monitoring and countering its operational mechanisms;
policy recommendations for EU institutions, EU Member States, civil society support programmes and democratic actors.
The publication argues that the Union State should not be underestimated simply because it has not become a fully-fledged supranational entity. Its real significance lies in intergovernmental agreements, inter-agency coordination, technical regulations, sanctions-evasion channels, military integration and bureaucratic mechanisms that gradually entrench Belarus’s dependence on Russia. This makes the Union State not only a Belarus–Russia issue, but also a regional security challenge for Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the European Union as a whole.
The policy brief calls for a more precise European approach:
targeting the operational infrastructure of the Union State,
strengthening expert monitoring,
preserving legal mobility and communication channels for citizens,
supporting independent research,
and developing a roadmap for the possible dismantling or transformation of the Union State in a future democratic transition.