Даследаванні Інстытута развіцця і сацыяльнага рынку для Беларусі і Усходняй Еўропы (IDSMbee)

Belarus and Russia under war and sanctions: social attitudes and policy options for the EU and democratic forces

This policy brief summarises the results of an expert discussion held under the Chatham House Rule in April 2026, with the participation of representatives of the Belarusian and Russian expert communities. The discussion focused on public attitudes in Belarus and Russia, perceptions of the war in Ukraine, economic uncertainty, geopolitical orientations, social adaptation, sovereignty, and the future prospects of democratic alternatives.
  • How do Belarusian and Russian societies adapt to a prolonged war and sanctions?
  • Why does social fatigue not automatically turn into political mobilisation?
  • And what policy options are available for the European Union, international partners and democratic actors working with Belarusian and Russian societies?
The policy brief examines:
  • the different forms of social adaptation in Belarus and Russia under war, sanctions and authoritarian pressure;
  • the persistence of an anti-war consensus in Belarus and the importance of sovereignty as a unifying public value;
  • inertial support for the war in Russia, combined with growing fatigue over its social and economic costs;
  • the risks created when Belarus is viewed only through the Russian policy track;
  • the unintended consequences of sanctions, border restrictions and declining mobility for Belarusian society;
  • the need for a more concrete, socially grounded and security-oriented agenda from Belarusian democratic actors;
  • policy recommendations for EU institutions, international partners, civil society programmes, research organisations and democratic forces.
The publication argues that neither Belarusian nor Russian society should be expected to move rapidly from fatigue to mass mobilisation. Discontent exists, but in both cases it is mostly processed through private survival strategies rather than collective political action. This requires a more realistic policy approach: preserving Belarusian connectivity with Europe, supporting independent research, strengthening civil society infrastructure, and developing practical transition scenarios that address security, social guarantees, economic stability and sovereignty.

Download the full policy brief (PDF)

2026-06-11 14:07 Эканоміка Палітыка Сацыяльная сфера