Belarus and Russia: projects for transformation — critical analysis and future prospects

This analytical report summarises the findings of the fourth round of Belarusian–Russian expert discussions, held under the Chatham House Rule in November 2025 and involving ten leading analysts from both countries. The dialogue focused on the rapidly growing body of democratisation strategies, reform concepts, and “visions of the future” drafted by opposition groups, expert networks, and diaspora communities.

The report examines:

• The quality, realism, and internal coherence of existing reform projects in both Belarus and Russia;
• Key gaps and weaknesses, including insufficient scenario planning, limited attention to religious policy, nationalities policy, social protection, gender equality, and the role of education;
• Differences in the Belarusian and Russian contexts, including why Belarusian strategies appear more structured and consensus-based, while many Russian projects remain declarative;
• The role of diasporas as “agents of change”, comparing expert communities, human-rights organisations, and political actors in exile;
• Opportunities and constraints for Belarusian–Russian cooperation, especially in economics, education, human rights, and culture;
• Risks of fragmentation, societal disengagement, and unrealistic expectations in the preparation for potential transitions.

The publication offers a clear and comprehensive assessment of the current intellectual landscape surrounding reform initiatives, identifying both promising developments and systemic obstacles. The report also presents practical recommendations on how democratic actors, expert communities, and international partners can strengthen transition planning, foster cooperation, and avoid repeating the mistakes of previous post-authoritarian transformations.