Belarus in the shadow of the ‘Russkiy Mir’: Policy Options for the EU, the International Community and Civil Society

The paper explores how international sanctions and the regime’s political isolation have accelerated Belarus’s economic dependence on Russia and created structural vulnerabilities, while the ideological expansion of the “Russkiy Mir” and Russification of the information space pose long-term risks to Belarusian identity and sovereignty.

Despite repressions and isolation, Belarusian society continues to demonstrate resilience. The paper highlights key dynamics within the country and among the post-2020 diaspora, including civic and cultural resistance, decentralised solidarity networks, and the role of independent media and initiatives in exile.

The document offers a critical assessment of the European Union’s current approach, pointing to the lack of a clear long-term support strategy for Belarusians. It calls for a more proactive EU role that combines political pressure on the regime with structured support for democratic actors and civil society.

Key recommendations include:

• Strengthening existing cooperation mechanisms with Belarusian democratic forces;
• Developing a roadmap for reintegration of Belarus into the European family post-transition;
• Supporting cultural, educational, and civic resilience as a foundation for long-term democratic change.

The policy paper is based on the discussions and outcomes of the international conference “Belarus in the Shadow of the ‘Russkiy Mir’: Challenges and Civil Society Responses” held on 12 December 2025 in Warsaw, as part of the IDSMBEE project “Five Years of Resistance: Quo Vadis, Belarus?”.