This analytical report presents a comprehensive examination of possible political trajectories for Belarus and Russia in the post-Lukashenka and post-Putin period. Based on a closed-door expert discussion held under the Chatham House Rule in October 2025, it analyses four potential scenarios — Conservative Continuity, Limited Thaw, Intensified Dictatorship, and Uncontrolled Chaos — and evaluates their likelihood, risks, and implications.
Experts from Belarus and Russia assess the internal resilience of both regimes, the structural weaknesses that might provoke systemic rupture, and the decisive influence of the war in Ukraine on regional security. The report concludes with detailed recommendations for civil society, democratic actors, and international partners on how to prepare for rapid political shifts, safeguard societal resilience, and preserve the possibility of democratic transformation.
Analytical Report
This publication summarises the outcomes of the second expert discussion held on 14 October 2025 under the Chatham House Rule. The discussion focused on four hypothetical models of political development in Belarus and Russia after the eventual departure of their authoritarian leaders. The report examines the structural factors shaping these scenarios, evaluates their probability, analyses societal and economic implications, and outlines concrete recommendations for preparing democratic forces for a future window of opportunity.
Download the Full Report (English version)