Charting Belarus–Russia Cooperation in a Post-Putin and Post-Lukashenka Era

The paper provides a comprehensive, multi-dimensional assessment of the evolving relationship between Belarus and Russia in the context of authoritarian consolidation, war, and geopolitical transition. It explores the structural asymmetries between the two states, the deepening economic and political interdependence, and the role of civil society, education, and ideology in shaping current dynamics.

The document is divided into four analytical parts and a conclusion:

• Part I examines the current political, economic, and societal constellations in both countries, including the imbalances in sovereignty, shifting economic dependencies, diverging public attitudes, and the erosion of civic space.
• Part II outlines four strategic scenarios for the post-Putin and post-Lukashenka future—ranging from conservative continuity to thaw, renewed dictatorship, and uncontrolled chaos—and assesses their likely political and economic effects.
• Part III compares ideological frameworks in contemporary Russia and Belarus, analysing imperial revanchism, the erosion of identity, and the regime-manufactured ideological void.
• Part IV highlights forward-looking proposals from democratic actors, covering economic and social reforms, education, church-state relations, diaspora engagement, and the future of Belarusian–Russian cooperation.
• The Conclusion presents practical recommendations for democratic partners, civil society actors, and international stakeholders committed to building peace, security, and resilience in Eastern Europe

We encourage scholars, decision-makers, and civic actors to engage with the findings and contribute to shaping informed, democratic alternatives for the region.